Population estimates are based upon real data for a date that has passed, whereas population projections are based upon educated guesses about future conditions. Both estimates and projections take into account current economic, demographic and land use trends.
PAG develops a complete residential and employment projection every five years, and plans to develop an abbreviated residential projection every year.
Pima Association of Governments’ Population Technical Advisory Committee was established to ensure that public and private interests are informed and represented in the development of these numbers. Committee members help identify economic, employment and land use factors, and trends that are used to formulate population estimates and projections.
Pima County
Pima County, located in southern Arizona, covers an area of approximately 9,200 square miles. The April 1, 2000, Census population count was 843,746, of which 305,059 (36 percent) resided in the unincorporated area. The majority of the population lives in the eastern half of the county, which contains all of the five incorporated jurisdictions, two Native American tribal reservation areas and a large, urbanized unincorporated area. Approximately 85 percent of the county’s land is federal, state or Native American owned.
In 2005, Pima County and the jurisdictions issued 12,509 new residential building permits, the highest number ever issued in a single year. In 2008, the figure was 3,394. Having passed the 1 million mark late in 2006, the official estimate for July 1, 2009, is 1,018,012, of which 365,950 live in unincorporated areas.
City of Tucson
The Census 2000 population of Tucson was 486,699, making it the 30th largest city in the nation. From incorporation in 1877, the city has grown from 2 square miles to over 227 square miles in area, the center of a metropolitan area of over 400 square miles. The second largest city in Arizona, Tucson’s mid-2009 population estimate for 2008 is 543,566.
Town of Oro Valley
Oro Valley is located approximately six miles north of Tucson and is part of the metropolitan region. Incorporated in 1974, it has expanded from 2.6 square miles to over 35 square miles. The Census 2000 population was 29,700 and the official July 2009 estimate is 43,521.
Town of Marana
Marana is located to the northwest of Tucson along I-10. Since incorporation in 1977 the town has grown from 10 to 118 square miles. Historically, a center of farming and ranching, its economy still has a large agricultural component. With a growth rate of 520 percent between 1990 and 2000, Marana experienced the highest growth rate of any Arizona city. The Census 2000 population was 13,556 and the July 2009 estimate is 34,191.
Town of Sahuarita
Sahuarita, incorporated in 1994, is the newest jurisdiction in Pima County. It is located in the Santa Cruz Valley approximately 20 miles south of Tucson, and covers an area of about 30 square miles. The Census 2000 population of Sahuarita was just 3,242 increasing to an official estimate of 24,968 in July 2009.
City of South Tucson
The City of South Tucson, which incorporated in 1938, is one square mile in area and is surrounded entirely by the City of Tucson. The highest population attained was approximately 7,000 in 1960. The Census 2000 count was 5,490 and the July 2009 official estimate is 5,815.
Tribal Lands
Pima County is home to two Native American Tribes: The Pascua Yaqui and the Tohono O’odham.
The Pascua Yaqui have a small reservation of 1.87 square miles to the southwest of the City of Tucson, but the people live throughout the county as well as locations in Pinal and Maricopa counties. The Census 2000 count for the Pascua Yaqui Tribe of Arizona was 3,315; total tribal membership is estimated at 6,136.
The U.S. area (4,453 square miles and 10,787 persons) of the Tohono O’odham Nation covers much of western Pima County, portions of southwestern Pinal and southern Maricopa counties. The portion lying within Pima County totals 4,341 square miles. The capital city, Sells, had a Census 2000 population of 2,799. The Pima County portions of the Nation were enumerated in 2000 as having 9,545 persons. Total tribal enrollment is estimated as being over 23,890 persons.
Population Growth Pattern
The 1900 decennial census recorded 14,689 residents in Pima County. As new migrants arrived in Tucson they settled along the northern and southern corridors of State Highway 89/90; later arrivals moved steadily eastward. By 1970, development was constrained by federal lands to the east and development began to spread to the northwest. In 1970, the population center was located at Broadway Boulevard and Alvernon Way, it moved north to Sixth Street and Tucson Boulevard by 1980 and by 1990 was located near Sam Hughes Elementary School at Third Street and Norton Avenue. The northwestern growth continued through the 1990s and by 2000 the population was centered on the University of Arizona around First Street and Cherry Avenue. The earlier north-south pattern of expansion appears to be recurring and future development is expected to be strongly oriented around I-10 and I-19 corridors.
Contact Information:
Pima Association of Governments
177 N. Church Ave., Suite 405
Tucson, Arizona 85701
Phone: (520) 792-1093
Fax: (520) 620-6981
|